Spatial–temporal Modelling for Estimating Impacts of Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise on Coastal Communities: The Case of Isle Madame in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, Canada

Abstract

More frequent and harsh storms coupled with sea level rise are affecting Canada’s sensitive coastlines. This research studies Isle Madame in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia which has been designated by Natural Resource Canada as a sea level rise vulnerable coastal community in Canada. The research models the spatial and temporal impacts of sea level rise from storm surge by focusing on identifying vulnerable areas in the community via geographical information systems (GIS) using ArcGIS, as well as modeling dynamic coastal damage via system dynamics using STELLA. The research evaluates the impacts in terms of the environmental, social, cultural, economic pillars that profile the coastal community for a series of modelled Storm Scenarios. This research synthesizes information from a variety of sources including the coastal ecology and natural resources, as well as human society and socioeconomic indicators included in the four mentioned pillars. The objective of the research is to determine vulnerable areas on Isle Madame susceptible to storm damage, and consequently, to improve local community knowledge and preparedness to more frequent harsh storms. This research therefore presents a dynamic model for the evaluation of storm impacts in Isle Madame designed with the goal to help the community ultimately to plan and implement a strategy to adapt to pending environmental change.