An Analysis of Ukraine’s EU Membership prospects following Russia’s 2022 invasion

Abstract

Ukraine became a candidate of the European Union (EU) in record time during an active war. This paper examines the likelihood that Ukraine will join the EU in the near future as most Ukrainians anticipate. Based on a literature review, such as recent EU publications, reports and news articles, this paper argues that Ukraine needs to address a fundamental structural challenge (namely, corruption) before it can realize the EU accession requirements; otherwise, the accession journey is guaranteed to be a long one, despite the record start. As an important consideration, this paper relies mostly on information available prior to the start of Russia’s invasion on 24 February 2022. Key words: Ukraine; European Union; accession; reform; Russian invasion