Extremes of summer climate trigger thousands of thermokarst landslides in a High Arctic environment

Abstract

Retrogressive thaw slumps (RTS) - landslides caused by the melt of ground ice in permafrost - have become more common in the Arctic, but the timing of this recent increase and its links to climate have not been fully established. Here we annually resolve RTS formation and longevity for Banks Island, Canada (70,000 km(2)) using the Google Earth Engine Timelapse dataset. We describe a 60-fold increase in numbers between 1984 and 2015 as more than 4000 RTS were initiated, primarily following four particularly warm summers. Colour change due to increased turbidity occurred in 288 lakes affected by RTS outflows and sediment accumulated in many valley floors. Modelled RTS initiation rates increased by an order of magnitude between 1906-1985 and 2006-2015, and are projected under RCP4.5 to rise to >10,000 decade(-1) after 2075. These results provide additional evidence that ice-rich continuous permafrost terrain can be highly vulnerable to changing summer climate.