Optimum Decision Policy for Gradual Replacement of Conventional Power Sources by Clean Power Sources

Abstract

With the increase of world population and industrial growth of developing countries, demand for energy, in particular electric power, has gone up at an unprecedented rate over the last decades. To meet the demand, electric power generation by use of fossil fuel has increased enormously thereby producing increased quantity of greenhouse gases. This contributes more and more to atmospheric pollution, which climate scientists believe can adversly affect the global climate, as well as health and the welfare of the world population. In view of these issues, there is global awareness to look for alternate sources of energy such as natural gas, hydropower, wind, solar, geothermal and biomass. It is recognized that this requires replacement of existing infrastructure with new systems, which cannot be achieved overnight. Optimal control theory has been widely used in diverse areas of physical sciences, medicine, engineering and economics. The main motivation of this thesis is to use this theory to find the optimum strategy for integration of all currently available renewable energy sources with the existing electric power generating systems. The ultimate goal is to eliminate fossil fuels. Eight main energy sources namely, Coal, Petroleum, Natural Gas, Conventional Hydro, Wind, Solar, Geothermal and Biomass are considered in a dynamic model. The state of the dynamic model represents the level of energy generation from each of the sources. Different objective functions are proposed in this thesis. These range from meeting the desired target level of power generation from each of the available sources at the end of a given plan period, to reducing the implementation and investment costs; from minimizing the production from polluted energy sources to meeting the electricity demand during a whole plan period. Official released data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration have been used as a case study. Based on real life data and the mathematics of optimal control theory, we present an optimal policy for integration of renewable energy sources to the national power grid.