Track Record of Zero-Emission Vehicle Mandates in Canada and the United States

Abstract

In 2018, the road transportation sector accounted for 22 and 28 percent of Canada and the United States’ GHG emissions, respectively (Environment and Climate Change 2020, 21; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency 2020). To mitigate those emissions, several Canadian provinces and US state governments have deployed zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) mandate regulations which require vehicle manufacturers to sell an increasing percentage of ZEVs as part of their total sales. This study investigates whether ZEV mandates have been effective at promoting ZEV adoption and availability in subnational jurisdictions in Canada and the US. Three findings emerge but with important caveats. First, jurisdictions with ZEV regulations appear to have on average higher ZEV adoption and availability than their counterparts without such regulations. However, there is insufficient evidence to establish a clear link between regulations and ZEV adoption and availability. Second, there is a pattern of increased ZEV adoption following the adoption and implementation of a regulation. However, there are several inconsistencies in this pattern and there are many other factors that could influence ZEV adoption, including the introduction of popular new ZEV models, varying consumer preferences, declining ZEV prices and the potential impact of other environmental policies. Third, jurisdictions with more stringent ZEV regulations may experience greater ZEV adoption and availability in the long term. However, all the ZEV regulations in the US have similar stringency. Overall, British Columbia has the most stringent regulation. However, the added stringency of its compliance requirements only take effect starting in 2026. Therefore, it remains unclear whether this added stringency is responsible for greater ZEV adoption and availability in the province.