A study of the factors affecting the total fertility rate in South Korea

Abstract

In 2014, the total fertility rate (TFR) of South Korea was 1.21 children per woman, which was the lowest level among OECD member countries, and also one of the lowest in the world. As the decline of the total fertility rate has been so rapid and the morality rate has also declined sharply, the population of South Korea has been aging at a fast speed. If these circumstances persist, the financial burden of supporting aging people will place heavy pressure on young people, and the labour market will be strained by the decreasing productive population. To solve the low fertility problem, it is very important to find out what are the cause of low fertility. In this study, the model divides the factors causing a low fertility rate into two categories - demographic and values factors (the entry rate into tertiary education of women, the age at first marriage of women, and the crude divorce rate) and economic and social factors (the nominal GNI per capita, the female employment rate, and the ratio of educational cost to household consumption expenditure). Through correlation analysis and univariate regression analysis I find that each of the six independent variables has a negative correlation with the total fertility rate. Also, the results of the multiple regression analysis indicate that the three variables which are related to women have negative effects on the total fertility rate. However, the coefficients of the other three variables are not statistically significant. Thus, I suggest that the Korean government focus on support policies that help women to balance work and child-rearing to increase the total fertility rate.