Fertility Policy: Evidence of the Impacts of The Two-Single Two-Child Policy and The Single Two-Child Policy on Birth Rates in China

Abstract

This paper examines the impacts of the Two-Single Two-Child policy and the early stage in urban areas of the Single Two-Child policy on the birth rates in China. Where the Two-Single Two-Child policy represents that if the couple are all the only child in their families, the couple can have two children; the Single Two-child policy means if one of the couples are the only child in his/ her family, this couple are able to have a second child. These two policies all based on the One-Child policy, which was implemented in urban areas of China since 1979 to allow each couple to have only one child in their life. Using data from the 1% population sample survey of 1987, 1995,2005 and 2015 and two difference-in-difference approaches, we find that the birth rates had raised in the policy-implemented areas and that people did not change their preference to have a first child too much, but that they changed them to have a second child.