Chinese foreign policy in the age of Xi Jinping: a ''fundamental'' shift or staying the course? An analysis of the Xi presidency's foreign policy direction

Abstract

Since coming to office in 2012, Chinese President Xi has sought to reform his country’s foreign policy and depart from long held precedents that have been in place since Deng Xiaoping. However, has there been a “fundamental” shift in Chinese foreign affairs, or should it be interpreted as something more tempered and nuanced? To answer this question, I draw upon Charles Hermann’s (Texas A&M) and Kjell Goldmann’s (University of Stockholm) methodologies concerning fundamental changes to foreign policy, including how to recognize and interpret such changes. I then apply this framework to the current Xi administration and assess whether it meets the bar of a “fundamental” departure in foreign policy from previous generations of Chinese leadership in key areas of analysis: China’s regional and military assertiveness, its challenge to global institutions, and finally its forceful economic policies. I conclude that while there have been significant changes within Chinese foreign policy over the last decade, apart from the Belt and Road Initiative and its soft power implications, no other area of analysis meets the standard to be considered fundamental.