Modelling Human Risk of West Nile Virus Using Surveillance and Environmental Data

Abstract

Limited research has been performed in Ontario to ascertain risk factors for West Nile Virus (WNV) and to develop a unified risk prediction strategy. The aim of the current body of work was to use spatio-temporal modelling in conjunction with surveillance and environmental data to determine which pre-WNV season factors could forecast a high risk season and to explore how well mosquito surveillance data could predict human cases in space and time during the WNV season. Generalized linear mixed modelling found that mean minimum monthly temperature variables and annual WNV-positive mosquito pools were most significantly predictive of number of human WNV cases (p<0.001). Spatio-temporal cluster analysis found that positive mosquito pool clusters could predict human case clusters up to one month in advance. These results demonstrate the usefulness of mosquito surveillance data as well as publicly available climate data for assessing risk and informing public health practice.