Climate Change and the Distribution of Agricultural Output

Abstract

This paper uses a multi-run climate projection model to examine the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of agricultural outcomes in India. Weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural revenues (1-in-100-year events) are projected to become the norm, increasing by 53 to 88 percentage points by the end of the 21st century. As a result, Indian farmers will face a 16% to 33% decline in mean revenue over the course of the century, presenting a more urgent problem than changes in yield variability. Analysis using a structural general equilibrium model suggests consequences of a similar magnitude for welfare.