Evaluating the Discordant Trends of Political Divergence and Economic Convergence Across the Taiwan Strait

Abstract

This research aims to figure out the discordant trends of economic convergence and political divergence across the Taiwan Strait both at the governmental and the public levels. Besides illustrating the factors that shape these two inconsistent trends, this paper will demonstrate the political divergence at the public level through figuring out their preferences for unification and independence issues and Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-Strait policy. This research will also provide implications for Taiwan and Mainland China based on the 2008, 2012 and 2016 presidential elections and surveys related to the performance of the Tsai administration. Since the 1980s, the cross-Strait economic interactions have increased dramatically. At the government level, Taiwan’s different ruling parties’ and the Chinese authorities’ policies toward each other can influence cross-Strait economic and political contacts. The economic interactions between the two-side people of the Strait have also increased. Based on logistic regression models, this research concludes that Taiwanese people’s cost-and-benefit calculations on the macroeconomic condition of Taiwan, and their political predispositions of party affiliation and ethnic identity can influence on their preferences for unification-independence issues and Tsai Ing-wen’s cross-Strait policy. Therefore, Taiwanese people’s cost-and-benefit calculations on the national economy of Taiwan, and the party affiliation and ethnic identity they have contributed to the political divergence at the public level.