Assessing the dynamic status of fish resources in space and time.

Abstract

The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the spatial-temporal dynamic status of Scotia-Fundy herring stocks in NAFO divisions 4WX in the Bay of Fundy region and the Scotian Shelf. This thesis uses an alternative method to examine the dynamic in-season status of fish movement in space and time over the fishing season. Two models are presented based on Bayesian uncertainty statistical theory. A working computer decision model is developed to estimate the weekly stock abundance by area. A simulation model is developed to examine the strategic plan of the fishery. A visualized computer application tool, MapTest has been developed to implement the above two models. This application uses OLE (object linked and embedded) techniques to present fishing data on a GIS (geographic information system) mapping system and link and embed to a Visual Basic application. Using MapTest, fishery scientists can estimate the stock abundance based on the available catch data and simulate the impact of alternative catch scenarios. This thesis used the MapTest application to analyze the catch and estimated abundance of the five spawning areas in the 4WX herring fishery and processed three estimated caches year analyses. The computer application developed and illustrated here provides valuable information to assist decision makers in managing the fishery in real on a spatial-temporal basis throughout the fishing year.