Quinze ans de réformes en Chine : impact sur les perspectives d'émergence de la démocratie.

Abstract

The reforms implemented in China from 1978 to 1995 have had a profound impact at many levels of Chinese society. What about the impact of those reforms on the prospects for democracy? This study specifically examines the impact of reforms on ten factors that can facilitate or obstruct the emergence of democracy in a country. On the one hand, the reforms in China have generated rapid economic growth and brought about improvements in social and economic development. The opening to the outside world has made China more sensitive to external influence. Reforms have plunged the regime into a crisis of legitimacy. These are three factors facilitating the emergence of democracy. On the other hand, reforms have somewhat loosened the State's otherwise tight control over society; the nucleus of a civil society has emerged; the political culture is a little more acquainted with democratic ideas and values, but a capable democratic leadership has yet to arise. The political institutions typical of a Leninist state have remained. The army's influence over politics has not been significantly altered, and certain regional and ethnic-based tensions persist. These factors continue to obstruct the emergence of democracy or, in some cases, may be considered neutral. The study concludes that the reforms implemented from 1978 to 1995 have improved the prospects for the emergence of democracy in China, although, all in all, the perspectives remain weak over the short to medium-term.