Long-term Habitat Trends in Barren-ground Caribou

Abstract

Global and local climate patterns may affect barren-ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus groenlandicus) populations. I predicted global climate changes to be correlated with periods of population decline, and local changes to be more pronounced on the habitat of caribou with a declining population. In chapter 1, the Arctic Oscillation (AO), changes in normalized difference vegetation index and phenology were used as measures of global and local climate. In chapter 2 environmental variables and caribou presence points were used to build Maxent habitat models. There was no consistent correlation with the positive AO phase and periods of population decline, or phenology trends and the habitat of caribou with a declining population. Maxent models underestimated the amount of suitable habitat spatially and failed to model suitable habitat temporally. This thesis is the first to look at a range of density-independent variables over a long time period and model suitable habitat for multiple herds.