International Factors and Rising Authoritarianism in Southeast Asia: China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the role of elite coherence in Malaysia and Indonesia

Abstract

The degradation of rights and democracy in Southeast Asia marked by the last five years has captured the world’s attention, initiating a prominent debate and vast literature about this increasingly salient issue. This paper acknowledges that there are domestic causes to this matter but chooses to focus on how international factors contribute to the rise of authoritarianism in Southeast Asia. To find out, it looks at two main hypotheses: China’s growing presence in Southeast Asia through its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the Trump administration’s Asia policy. It looks at Malaysia and Indonesia, using the method of difference, to determine which hypothesis has the greatest impact. This paper is constructed of three arguments. The first concludes that China’s BRI is the most important vector of authoritarianism among the two hypotheses studied. It argues that the illiberal characteristics of the BRI, its holistic approach and its strategic vision make the initiative an effective enabler of illiberal propensities. Although Trump’s Asia policy does reinforce the degradation of rights and democracy in Southeast Asia, it lacks coherence and long-term engagement to have a substantive effect. Secondly, it claims that the effect of the BRI is conditional upon the cohesion of the ruling elite. If there is unanimity among elites to embrace the potential offered by the BRI, authoritarian tendencies will be stronger. On the contrary, divided elites will dampen such tendencies. Finally, this paper argues that the effects of the BRI on authoritarian tendencies in Southeast Asia, notwithstanding the position of the ruling elite, will not last if the enthusiasm for the Chinese initiative is not shared by civil society.