Land Conflicts in the Wake of Gold Mining Expansion in Colombia

Abstract

This paper provides quantitative evidence on the relationship between gold mining expansion and violent conflict in Colombia. Utilizing a two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression model, the study examines the effects of gold mining on violence using three different measures of gold mining activity across two distinct periods: the Gold Rush (2004-2014) and the post-Gold Rush (2014-2022). The exogeneity of international gold prices and geochemical anomalies is exploited to identify causal effects. During the Gold Rush period, strong effects of gold mining on violence are observed using machine learning and gold mining deforestation measures. In the post-Gold Rush period, mixed results were found, with significant effects primarily observed using the deforestation measure. The presence of armed groups and ethnic mining communities exacerbates the effects of gold mining on violence. However, using two different measures for institutions, such as judicial inefficiency and electoral risk, no significant influence on the impact of gold mining on violence was found. The findings highlight the role of armed groups and the targeting of ethnic communities in the expansion of gold mining areas, underscoring the need for policy interventions to address land disputes and the involvement of armed groups in the mining sector. The robustness of the results is confirmed through various measures of the dependent variables and different clustering methods for standard errors.