The Spatial and Molecular Epidemiology of Lyme Disease in Eastern Ontario

Abstract

Lyme disease is an emerging tick-borne illness in Canada, with human case numbers increasing 15- to 20-fold since Lyme disease became nationally notifiable in 2009 until the present. In Ontario, Canada's largest province by population, average Lyme disease incidence across the province is similar to that of national estimates. However, in eastern Ontario, which is near tick endemic regions in the northeastern Unites States, Lyme disease incidence is disproportionately higher compared to the rest of the province.

The objectives of this thesis are to identify environmental Lyme disease risk areas in Ontario, to explore spatiotemporal trends in Lyme disease emergence, and to identify neighbourhood-level socioecological risk factors for Lyme disease. In addition, this thesis also aims to assess the risk of other tick-borne illnesses that are transmitted by the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, which is also the main vector for Lyme disease in Canada.

Using maximum entropy species distribution modelling to correlate blacklegged tick occurrence data with environmental variables, predictive risk models for I. scapularis and the Lyme disease pathogen, Borrelia burgdorferi, were developed. The model prediction was used to classify low and high environment risk areas and, using a case-control epidemiological study, we assessed that residence in risk areas was a strong predictor of Lyme disease. However, this relationship was modulated by socioecological factors linked to higher overall rurality of the locality of home residence. Spatial cluster analyses further revealed that human Lyme disease cases clustered in regions with the high numbers of reported B. burgdorferi-infected ticks in the environment. Many individuals residing in large metropolitan regions, like the City of Ottawa, reported tick exposures outside their public health unit of residence; however, local clusters of Lyme disease were also detected in suburban regions near conservation areas, trails, and urban woodlands. The prevalence of other tick-borne pathogens was low, although several pathogens of public health significance including Borrelia miyamotoi and Anaplasma phagocytophilum were detected at multiple sites surveyed for ticks between 2017-2021.

Overall, this thesis identify patterns in Lyme disease emergence (and potentially other tick-borne illnesses), defines environmental risk areas for Lyme disease in Ontario, and highlights important socioecological risk factors for Lyme disease in eastern Ontario.