Governing for the Future: An Analysis of the Welsh Approach to Protecting the Interests of Future Generations

Abstract

It is widely believed that democratic governance faces challenges when it comes to long-term planning and sustainability. Given the lack of representation of future generations in government decision-making, elected officials are incentivized to favour the concerns of current voters over future ones. Short-termism in government decision-making leads to the neglect of the interests of future generations resulting in exacerbating intergenerational crises like climate change and environmental degradation. The Wellbeing of Future Generations Act (WFGA) enacted by the Welsh government in 2015 is landmark legislation that aims to address short-termism by placing balancing the interests of current and future generations as the central organizing principle of Welsh government. Based on existing research on short-termism in democratic governance and other case studies around the world, this paper seeks to determine the strengths and weaknesses of the Welsh approach to protecting the interests of future generations in public sector decision-making through a focus on the role of the Future Generations Commissioner (FGC). Through a direct logic analysis, it first identifies the logic model behind the WFGA; second, it provides a conceptual framework for the evaluation of institutions representing future generations; third, it applies the conceptual framework to the evaluation of the Welsh FGC role. The research findings indicate that the FGC’s design incorporates several structural resilience elements that are beneficial to the success of such institutions. The FGC’s statutory independence, cross-party and public support, cross-cutting future-oriented scope, and legislative backing provide a strong basis for the longevity and impact needed to achieve its mandate. However, vague goals and definitions, weak enforcement powers, and a lack of appropriate resourcing/leadership from the Welsh government could hinder the success of the FGC and the WFGA more broadly. Ultimately, achieving the culture change needed to shift democratic governments away from short-termism is a major undertaking and requires a difficult balancing act between impact and longevity. Keywords: Future Generations; short-termism; democratic governance; well-being; long-term; Wales