Spatial and temporal patterns and predictors of butterfly species richness in Canada throughout the 20th century

Abstract

There is great interest in ecology to determine the drivers of species richness. For many taxa, and in natural circumstances, temperature is often found to be a good predictor of richness. The goal of this thesis was to determine, amongst several human-related and natural, environmental and ecological variables, the most important broad-scale predictors of butterfly species richness across Canada. Also, I presented a test of whether spatial relationships are adequate surrogates for the temporal relationship between richness and predictor variables. Using precisely georeferenced and dated butterfly records across Canada, I created butterfly species richness maps for two periods (1900-1930 and 1960-1990), and then related them to candidate predictors. Natural variables such as temperature, precipitation and soil type tended to explain most of the variance in species richness, while human-related variables such as habitat fragmentation, habitat heterogeneity and pesticide density added very little. A comparison of temporal and spatial relationships showed that temperature was a consistent predictor of richness through time and space, but that the impact of human activities on richness differed. My results are consistent with the species-energy hypothesis while showing that human-related variables are not having a large measurable effect on butterfly species richness patterns in Canada at broad scales. Also of critical importance in this thesis is the difference I found between the spatial and temporal relationships of richness vs. human activity level. I show that the assumption commonly made in macro-ecology that spatial variables are appropriate surrogates for temporal ones, is not always correct.