Duration of Anticoagulant Therapy for Unprovoked Venous Thromboembolism

Abstract

Venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a chronic illness that affects nearly 10 million people every year worldwide. Anticoagulant therapy with direct oral anticoagulants is the mainstay of treatment for patients with VTE, and should be continued for at least 3-6 months. Thereafter, a decision should be made to discontinue anticoagulation or continue it indefinitely. This decision is most challenging for patients with a first unprovoked VTE because of uncertainty in estimates for the long-term benefits (e.g., reduction in recurrent VTE) and harms (e.g., increase in major bleeding) of extended anticoagulation, and the trade-offs between them. The overarching aim of this doctoral thesis was to address these key evidence gaps that are pertinent to making decisions regarding the duration of anticoagulation for patients with a first unprovoked VTE. The first three studies of this thesis synthesized contemporary and reliable estimates for the long-term risks and consequences of recurrent VTE and major bleeding, with and without extended anticoagulation (parameters that can influence the clinical and cost-effectiveness of discontinuing versus continuing anticoagulation indefinitely). Broadly, these systematic reviews and meta-analyses found that: 1) the long-term risks and consequences of major bleeding during extended anticoagulation are considerable, particularly with vitamin K antagonists as well as in older patients, patients using antiplatelet therapy, and in patients with kidney disease, a history of bleeding, or anemia; and 2) the long-term risks of recurrent VTE during extended anticoagulation and major bleeding after discontinuing anticoagulation are reassuringly low but not negligible. The fourth study incorporated the synthesized evidence to compare the lifetime clinical benefits, harms, and costs of discontinuing versus continuing anticoagulation indefinitely. This decision analytic modelling study showed that indefinite anticoagulation is unlikely to either result in a net clinical benefit or be cost-effective in all (i.e., unselected) patients with a first unprovoked VTE. Findings from this thesis can serve to impact clinical practice and health policy by informing patient prognosis to guide shared decision-making regarding the duration of treatment for unprovoked VTE, and informing future research to ultimately identify which patients should receive anticoagulation indefinitely in order to maximize health benefits for the available healthcare resources.