Food Security and Conflict: Evidence from the Boko Haram Insurgency in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper aims to study the impact of the Boko Haram Insurgency on Food Security in Nigeria. To aid this study, I employ data from the General Household Survey (GHS) conducted by the National Bureau of Statistics - Nigeria (NBS), as well as conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Program (ACLED). Using household per capita food expenditure as the proxy for food security, I adapt a food security index and estimate a probit model to determine the food security status of households. Results from the index highlight that Boko Haram activities affect the food security status of households; however, the difference between households in conflict-affected areas and non-conflict areas are not large as expected in terms of differences in the incidence, depth and severity of food insecurity. Using the probit model, I observe similar trends in the magnitude of Boko Haram’s impact on the food security status of households. But contrary to expectations, the results for 2012 indicate that households exposed to Boko Haram activities have a higher probability of attaining food security relative to households not exposed to conflict. In 2015, the case is reversed but the results are statistically insignificant; hence, I conduct additional tests using two different measures to improve the study.