Inuit Qaujimajatuqangit and Western Scientific Perspectives on Trends and Risks Related to the Range Expansion of Aarluit (Orcinus orca; Killer Whale) in the Canadian Arctic

Abstract

The Canadian Arctic is warming at a rate four times faster than the rest of the world. This rapid warming and associated decreases in sea ice concentration and lengthened open water season have resulted in the range shift of killer whale (Orcinus orca) - hereafter referred to by the Inuktitut name for killer whale 'aarluk' (singular) or 'aarluit' (plural) - in the Canadian Arctic. There are many uncertainties about the cascading effects associated with the aarluk population's increased prominence emergence in the region, thus complexifying attempts to predict and address any potential risks which may materialize. To fill this knowledge gap, a mutli-modal and inter-disciplinary research approach was employed to clarify uncertainty regarding expected future range shifts of aarluk in the region, and the associated ecological and social risks resulting from their changing presence. First, a modified Delphi survey of relevant experts was employed to identify points of consensus on the population size, range and seasonality trends of the Northwest Atlantic / Eastern Arctic aarluk population and its prey base under four climate change scenarios (SSP1, SSP3, SSP4 and SSP5) in the medium-term (2041-2060). Second, interviews and a focus group including community-based participatory mapping sessions with knowledge-holders were held in in Mittimatalik (Pond Inlet), Nunavut to understand the experiences, concerns and research and policy needs recommended by hunters and community knowledge holders.

Research results revealed that the population size of almost all aarluk prey species were predicted to decline in the medium-term future and the range of these prey species were most often predicted to shift northward and to contract overall. Conversely, the population size of aarluk in the region is predicted to increase in the medium-term (2041-2060) expected to remain in the Arctic for anywhere from an additional 0 to 120 days in addition to the current range of time aarluit are sighted in the region of approximately 120 to 150 days. The range of aarluit populations is also expected to expand further into the Arctic Archipelago and Central Canadian Arctic. Almost all measures demonstrated high consensus among experts. A list of 31 risk factors were revealed among the expert group related to the dual effect of climate change and expected range shifts of aarluit in the Canadian Arctic. Of the total risk factors identified, 6 were highlighted as the most likely to occur and as having the highest level of priority for future policy and research attention, being identified as presenting significant risks to local ecosystems and, by extension, peoples, as well as requiring remediation.

Near Mittimatalik, hunters and community knowledge holders clearly identified that any increased presence of aarluit presents a hinderance to hunting and obtaining country foods. Concerns relate to the overall reduction in the abundance of desired prey (whether by driving them to other areas or decreasing their numbers through predation and disruptions of behaviour affecting mortality rates) or by altering the distributions and behaviour of prey in the short-term to reduce predictability of prey habitat choice and behaviour. While not all impacts are negative, these challenges, in combination with other stressors in the region (e.g., shipping) can factor into decision-making when planning a trip, including deciding where to hunt, when to hunt, and even what to hunt. Results of the study provide insights into the experience of community members with these changes and potential future experiences of other communities should the range of the population continue to expand, supporting a proactive policy, program and research response oriented to community-identified challenges and needs.