Political Discourse and Defence Spending in Canada: Exploring Rhetorical Framing and Fiscal Outcomes Since 1990

Abstract

This thesis investigates the relationship between political discourse and Canadian defence spending from 1990 to 2023, with particular attention to how discourse on defence spending interacts with fiscal conditions, electoral timing, political ideology, and external security pressures. An original dataset of House of Commons debates was constructed, with each speech excerpt systematically coded as either expansion oriented or restraint oriented defence spending rhetoric. These discourse measures were analyzed alongside macroeconomic and political indicators using local projection methods to estimate how their associations with defence spending unfold across eight forecast horizons (eight years). Many of the findings provide support for the study’s three core hypotheses. First, defence related discourse responds systematically to economic and political contexts (H1): restraint oriented rhetoric is more prevalent during periods of rising inflation, worsening fiscal balances, and under left leaning governments, whereas expansion oriented rhetoric is more common in contexts of strong economic growth, improving fiscal balances, and heightened external security pressures, though it declines in the lead up to elections. Second, variations in political discourse trends are associated with subsequent shifts in defence spending (H2): restraint oriented rhetoric is consistently linked to declines in defence expenditures from short term horizons through the long term, while expansion oriented rhetoric exerts no measurable short or medium term effect and only becomes significantly associated with increased spending in the longer term. Third, economic and political factors independently shape defence allocations (H3): rising debt and inflation correspond to sustained reductions in defence spending and left leaning governments are linked to immediate spending reductions, whereas heightened security pressures lead to increases that materialize over longer horizons. Overall, the analysis indicates that expansion oriented defence spending discourse is more prevalent in House of Commons debates than rhetoric oriented toward restraint. However, restraint oriented discourse shows a more immediate and consistent association with subsequent spending outcomes, whereas the influence of expansionary discourse becomes apparent only over longer temporal horizons. Collectively, these findings highlight the mechanisms through which different patterns of political discourse can be associated with defence spending patterns over the period examined, while also emphasizing the importance of future research that incorporates political discourse into broader measures of public spending.