Area and Volume Changes of Adams Icefield from 1948 to 2019, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, Canada

Abstract

There has been a marked increase in melt season length over the past two decades on glaciers and ice caps within Canada’s Queen Elizabeth Islands (QEI). Prior to the year ~2000 land ice was in a state of slightly negative mass balance (-11 +/- 11.5 Gt yr⁻¹ over 1958-1995), but recent GRACE measurements suggest that mass losses averaged -33 +/- 5 Gt yr⁻¹ between 2003-2015. These losses have primarily been attributed to meltwater runoff, making the QEI one of the largest recent contributors to sea level rise outside of the ice sheets. Despite these losses, there is a lack of information concerning how a warming climate is affecting small (<1 km²) ice bodies, which are considered sensitive indicators of change due to their short response time. In this study, historical and contemporary aerial photographs, high resolution optical satellite imagery, and ground penetrating radar (GPR) surveys are used to determine area, thickness, mass and volume changes of Adams Icefield within Expedition Fiord, Axel Heiberg Island, Nunavut, over the past seven decades (1948/59-2019). Area changes are determined from a comparison of air photos acquired in 1948/59 with satellite images acquired since 1979. Contemporary (2001, 2012, 2019) digital elevation models (DEMs) were either collected or created from stereo satellite images, and via aerial photo surveys using Structure from Motion photogrammetry. DEM of Difference maps calculated from these DEMs provide volume and mass changes. Results illustrate a steady reduction in glacier area, thickness, and volume prior to the year ~2000, followed by a rapid increase in losses over the past two decades. As a result, Adams Icefield is now rapidly declining and is likely to completely disappear early in the twenty-second century.