Forecasting the Spread between tthe “Real” and Official Unemployment Rates in Canada: Optimzing Forecast Performance of Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Models

Shibaev, Sergei s.2013-08-272013-08-2720112011http://hdl.handle.net/10393/25448In this paper I look at the spread between the "real" and official unemployment rates. The spread accounts for individuals that are maginally attached to the labour force (i.e individuals discouraged by market conditions), and is therefore capable of captenForecasting the Spread between tthe “Real” and Official Unemployment Rates in Canada: Optimzing Forecast Performance of Multiplicative Seasonal ARIMA Models