Costa, FranciscoForge, FabienGarred, JasonPessoa, João Paulo2020-04-072020-04-072020http://hdl.handle.net/10393/40334https://doi.org/10.20381/ruor-24567This paper uses a multi-run climate projection model to examine the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of agricultural outcomes in India. Weather draws resulting in extremely low agricultural revenues (1-in-100-year events) are projected to become the norm, increasing by 53 to 88 percentage points by the end of the 21st century. As a result, Indian farmers will face a 16% to 33% decline in mean revenue over the course of the century, presenting a more urgent problem than changes in yield variability. Analysis using a structural general equilibrium model suggests consequences of a similar magnitude for welfare.enclimate changeagricultureIndiacrop yieldvolatilityextreme eventsWorking Paper