Alzheimer’s and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use

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dc.contributor.authorManuel, Douglas G
dc.contributor.authorGarner, Rochelle
dc.contributor.authorFinès, Philippe
dc.contributor.authorBancej, Christina
dc.contributor.authorFlanagan, William
dc.contributor.authorTu, Karen
dc.contributor.authorReimer, Kim
dc.contributor.authorChambers, Larry W
dc.contributor.authorBernier, Julie
dc.date.accessioned2016-11-21T16:25:16Z
dc.date.available2016-11-21T16:25:16Z
dc.date.issued2016-11-03
dc.identifier.citationPopulation Health Metrics. 2016 Nov 03;14(1):37
dc.identifier.urihttp://dx.doi.org/10.1186/s12963-016-0107-z
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10393/35474
dc.description.abstractAbstract Background Worldwide, there is concern that increases in the prevalence of dementia will result in large demands for caregivers and supportive services that will be challenging to address. Previous dementia projections have either been simple extrapolations of prevalence or macrosimulations based on dementia incidence. Methods A population-based microsimulation model of Alzheimer’s and related dementias (POHEM:Neurological) was created using Canadian demographic data, estimates of dementia incidence, health status (health-related quality of life and mortality risk), health care costs and informal caregiving use. Dementia prevalence and 12 other measures were projected to 2031. Results Between 2011 and 2031, there was a projected two-fold increase in the number of people living with dementia in Canada (1.6-fold increase in prevalence rate). By 2031, the projected informal (unpaid) caregiving for dementia in Canada was two billion hours per year, or 100 h per year per Canadian of working age. Conclusions The projected increase in dementia prevalence was largely related to the expected increase in older Canadians, with projections sensitive to changes in the age of dementia onset.
dc.titleAlzheimer’s and other dementias in Canada, 2011 to 2031: a microsimulation Population Health Modeling (POHEM) study of projected prevalence, health burden, health services, and caregiving use
dc.typeJournal Article
dc.date.updated2016-11-21T16:25:16Z
dc.language.rfc3066en
dc.rights.holderThe Author(s).
CollectionLibre accès - Publications // Open Access - Publications

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