Learning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems

FieldValue
dc.contributor.authorHaysom, Joan E.
dc.contributor.authorJafarieh, Omid
dc.contributor.authorAnis, Hanan
dc.contributor.authorHinzer, Karin
dc.contributor.authorWright, David
dc.date.accessioned2015-08-17T18:01:30Z
dc.date.available2015-08-17T18:01:30Z
dc.date.created2014-12-13
dc.date.issued2014-12-13
dc.identifier.citationProg. Photovolt: Res. Appl. (2014)
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10393/32737
dc.identifier.urihttp://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/pip.2567/abstract;jsessionid=BE5B1F7329B1F8AD664FBC559E453F69.f02t04
dc.description.abstractPrice declines and volume growth of concentrated photovoltaic (CPV) systems are analysed using the learning curve methodology and compared with other forms of solar electricity generation. Logarithmic regression analysis determines a learning rate of 18% for CPV systems with 90% confidence of that rate being between 14 and 22%, which is higher than the learning rates of other solar generation systems (11% for CSP and 12 to 14% for PV). Current CPV system prices are competitive with PV and CSP, which, when combined with the higher learning rate, indicates that CPV is likely to further improve its marketability. A target price of 1 $/W in 2020 could be achieved with a compound growth rate of 67% for the total deployed volume between 2014 and 2020, which would realize a cumulative deployed volume of 7900 MW. Other projections of deployment volumes from commercial sources are converted using the learning rate into future price scenarios, resulting in predicted prices in the range of 1.1 to 1.3 $/W in 2020.
dc.language.isoen
dc.subjectconcentrated photovoltaics
dc.subjectlearning curve
dc.subjectsystem learning rate
dc.subjectsolar electricity costs
dc.subjectdeployed volumes
dc.subjectregression analysis
dc.titleLearning curve analysis of concentrated photovoltaic systems
dc.typeArticle
dc.identifier.doi10.1002/pip.2567
CollectionScience informatique et génie électrique - Publications // Electrical Engineering and Computer Science - Publications

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